inflation

Dollars and “Change”: what’s next for inflation and stocks? A look at the monetary supply

Posted onAuthorGeorge Arzumanyan, CFA, CIMA(R), MAFF(R), CVA(R)

As of this writing, the latest U.S. annual inflation rate came at 9.1 percent for the month of June 2022. Milton Friedman, an American economist and recipient of the 1976 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, once said, “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.” We will share our thoughts regarding the future path of U.S. inflation in the near future (say a year) using the money supply via the monetary base and the M2 money factors. The MacroRisk Analytics platform is utilized to show changes in the money supply and inflation.

As the inflation data in the table below shows, annual inflation had been relatively low from 2012 through 2020, but in April of 2021, annual inflation spiked to 4.2 percent, and we highlight this month in the table below to represent the starting month of a shift in inflation.

The annual inflation rate for the 12-month period ending on the month and year shown:

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Using the MacroRisk Analytics platform, we will review the relationship between money supply and lagged inflation. The goal is to identify major changes in these factors and when they happened.

The graph below shows the changes in the U.S. monetary base from 2005 until the present (July 14, 2022). The monetary base measures how much currency is actually in the United States. It includes all paper money, coins, and bank reserves. The monetary base spiked starting around March 2020. About one year after the monetary base started to increase, the inflation started to increase in April 2021.

Now, let’s look at the M2 money factor and how it has changed over time, as shown in the graph below. The M2 money is a broader measure of money supply that includes the previously mentioned monetary base plus demand deposits (money in checking accounts), and other saved money (savings accounts, money market funds, and small-amount certificates of deposit). Similarly, M2 money started to increase in March 2020, and about a year later, in April 2021, inflation began to increase. Prior to March 2020, the M2 money supply exhibited steady growth with no significant changes. We think the M2 money factor could be a more reliable and independent variable for predicting changes in inflation than the monetary base discussed previously because a jump in the M2 money factor was followed by a jump in inflation about a year later, whereas when the monetary base substantially increased starting in 2008, it did not cause a significant spike in inflation in the following years.

Now, to the question, will the U.S. inflation slow down or continue to increase in the near future (the next 12 months)?

The monetary base started to drop in December 2021. The M2 money supply slowed down in January 2022, peaked in April 2022, and has been decreasing slightly since then. Based on these two factors, the money supply is tightening (or at least not growing). Since new money is not being introduced into the economy, we expect the inflation rate to decrease starting around the 2nd quarter of 2023 if this downward trend in the money supply continues. Our reasoning for this time frame is that it took about a year after the money supply started to increase (especially the M2 money supply) in March 2020 until the inflation rate also started to increase in April 2021. Since the money supply peaked around the 1st and 2nd quarter of 2022, we predict that in about a year, around the 2nd quarter of 2023, the inflation rate will start to decrease. Until then, the inflation rate might stay at elevated levels.

While the purpose of this post is to explore the relationship between money supply and inflation, there are other variables that can affect inflation. We discuss some of these variables next. First, the central bank is raising interest rates which is expected to slow the economy and decrease demand which, in turn, is expected to put downward pressure on prices. The U.S. might even enter a recession because of this. Second, commodity prices have been dropping lately, which is expected to decrease input prices and again put a downward pressure on retail prices. Oil prices which have substantially increased over the past year, are showing signs of a slowdown where U.S. gas prices are at a two-month low as of July 19, 2022. Decreasing commodity prices could be another sign of a coming recession. Third, U.S. business inventories have been on the rise. Inventories spiked for companies such as Target and Costco. Higher inventory (i.e., higher supply) is expected to put downward pressure on prices. Companies are more likely to provide discounts. It looks like we might be shifting from a period of shortages that might have caused companies to overproduce, resulting in a glut of inventories mentioned previously.

This is why we believe that the U.S. will not experience runaway inflation, but instead we expect the inflation to start decreasing with our estimate sometime in the first half of 2023.

The analysis above was done with the help of the MacroRisk Analytics platform.

We Identified Stocks We Thought Would Do Well and Bad with Rising Inflation, Here Is How They Are Doing So Far.

Posted onAuthorGeorge Arzumanyan, CFA, CIMA(R), MAFF(R), CVA(R)

As many of us might know, inflation has been on the rise. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the annual inflation as of September 2021 is 5.4 percent. In our previous blog post published on April 19, 2021, we identified 10 Nasdaq-100 stocks that we expected to do well with rising inflation and 10 Nasdaq-100 stocks that would not do well in such an environment. Using the MacroRisk Analytics® platform, we look at the performance of these stocks and compare them to how the Nasdaq-100 index as a whole has fared so far. In addition, we identify another two sets of 10 Nasdaq-100 stocks that we expect to do well and not do well if inflation rises. Financial advisors and investors need to be aware of how inflation might impact their portfolios and assets.

To perform the comparison, using the MacroRisk Analytics portfolios tool, I created an equally weighted portfolio of 10 stocks that were expected to respond positively to rising inflation (blue line in the chart below) and an equally weighted portfolio of 10 stocks that were expected to respond negatively (pink line). Then I compared these two portfolios to the performance of the Nasdaq-100 Index (green line) using the MacroRisk Analytics performance report. The chart below shows this performance from April 13 through October 13, 2021, a six-month period. (The starting date is April 13, 2021, because data as of this date were initially used in the previous blog post to identify the two sets of 10 stocks.)

As can be seen, the portfolio of 10 stocks that we expected to do well in a rising inflation environment (blue line) did indeed do better than the Nasdaq-100 Index (green line) and the portfolio of 10 stocks that we expected to do worse in such an environment (pink line). The performance of the latter portfolio (pink line) and the Nasdaq-100 Index was somewhat similar over the six-month time period.

The table below shows the return and risk characteristics of the two portfolios and the index. The “top 10 inflation” portfolio also had lower risk than the index as represented by the standard deviation and the lower semideviation statistics, a good feat considering this portfolio consists of only 10 stocks while the index has 102 stocks.

So far, we have identified how the stocks we selected six months ago have performed through the present day. Next, I use the MacroRisk Analytics screening tool to identify new sets of stocks that we expect to do well and not well if inflation rises.

The table below shows 10 stocks out of the Nasdaq-100 Index that we expect to have the largest positive response to inflation as a proportion of total economic risk as of October 13, 2021.

The third column represents the proportion of total economic risk that inflation represents for an asset. The higher the number, the more significant the expected effect of inflation changes are on an asset’s stock price versus the other 17 economic factors in the MacroRisk Analytics model.

The fourth column represents the expected percentage change in a stock’s price given a one standard deviation increase in inflation.

The table below shows 10 stocks out of the Nasdaq-100 Index that we expect to have the largest negative response to inflation as a proportion of total economic risk as of October 13, 2021.

In summary, this post analyzed the performances of two sets of stocks, identified in our previous blog post, that we expected to do well and not so well in a rising inflation environment. We then identified new sets of stocks using the most recent available data. Inflation is only part of the total economic risk, and other economic risks can have a big impact on the performances of individual stocks and portfolios. MacroRisk Analytics provides the proprietary and patented tools to help you measure these economic risks.

This post is possible thanks to MacroRisk Analytics®. This platform provides investment research for 30,000+ individual names as well as investor portfolios. The MacroRisk Analytics® model uses 18 macroeconomic factors to break down the economy’s impact on investment value. Using this patented research, our team has twice won the William F. Sharpe Indexing Achievement Award for ETF/Indexing Paper of the Year. Click here to access this award-winning investment research today! You can find our other blog posts by going to www.macrorisk.com.

Top 10 Nasdaq Stocks with Largest Relative Exposures to Inflation – April 13, 2021 Update

Posted onAuthorGeorge Arzumanyan, CFA, CIMA(R), MAFF(R), CVA(R)

This post provides 10 stocks out of the Nasdaq-100 Index that investors can expect to benefit from a rise in inflation and 10 stocks that are expected to be negatively impacted by a rise in inflation. Financial advisors and investors need to be aware of how inflation is likely to impact their holdings and portfolios. We performed the analysis using the MacroRisk Analytics® platform as of April 13, 2021.

The Eta® profile by MacroRisk Analytics demonstrates an asset’s historical exposures to 18 economic factors in the MacroRisk Analytics model. CPI, or inflation, is one of these factors. If an asset has a positive exposure to inflation, we can expect it to benefit from a rise in inflation.

The MacroRisk Analytics platform makes it easy to identify stocks that have positive or negative exposures to inflation or any other factor in its model. Mondelez International (ticker: MDLZ) is one such company. According to its Eta profile shown below as of April 13, 2021, it has a large positive exposure to CPI as a proportion of its total economic risk (i.e., other economic exposures in the graph below). The MacroRisk Analytics model predicts the company’s stock price might increase approximately 27% with a one standard deviation increase in inflation, keeping other factors constant.

We used the MacroRisk Analytics screening tool to identify 10 stocks out of the Nasdaq-100 Index that one can expect to have the largest positive exposures to inflation as a proportion of total economic risk. Here are the results using data as of April 13, 2021.

The third column represents the proportion of total economic risk that inflation represents for an asset. The higher the number, the more significant the expected effect of inflation changes are on an asset’s stock price versus the other 17 economic factors in the MacroRisk Analytics model.

The fourth column represents the expected percentage change in a stock’s price given a one standard deviation increase in inflation.

Investors can expect Mondelez International (ticker: MDLZ) to have the largest positive inflation exposure as a percentage of its total economic risk (19.1%). If inflation increases one standard deviation, the stock’s price is expected to increase by about 27%, keeping other factors constant. The company operates in the confectioners’ industry and is one of the world’s largest snack companies with famous brands such as Chips Ahoy!, Ritz, Oreo, and others.

During the past 10 years, Mondelez International has enjoyed a positive exposure to inflation as demonstrated by the heat map shown below. Red represents positive and blue represents negative exposure to an economic factor.

Intuitively, this predicted positive response to inflation makes sense given that raw material costs are a small percentage of total operating costs, their businesses are not particularly labor intensive, yet, within their markets, they enjoy pricing power that allows them to raise their product prices in response to a surge in inflation.

The table below shows 10 stocks out of the Nasdaq-100 Index that are expected to have the largest negative response to inflation as a proportion of total economic risk as of April 13, 2021.

Micron Technology (ticker: MU) has inflation risk that represents 15.8% of its total economic risk. If inflation rises by one standard deviation, the stock’s price is expected to drop by approximately 38%, keeping other factors constant. The company operates in the semiconductors industry and provides memory and storage microchips.

Over the past ten years, Micron Technology’s response to inflation has varied. From May 2011 through approximately February 2018, it had a detrimental exposure to inflation (blue markings for the CPI factor) followed by a positive exposure (red markings) until about May 2020 and has recently reverted back to having a negative exposure to inflation.

Intuitively, this makes sense given that all but Kraft Heinz are technology companies where the sale price of their products are usually set by long term contracts, thus providing little short term pricing power when inflation surges.

This post presented stocks out of the Nasdaq-100 Index that have the largest positive and negative exposures to inflation risk. Given the recent expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, a rise in inflation is a possibility. Thus, it is essential to identify assets that one can expect to benefit from or be negatively impacted by an inflation rise. This identification allows one to adjust one’s portfolio appropriately.

This post is possible thanks to MacroRisk Analytics®. This platform provides investment research for 30,000+ individual names as well as investor portfolios. The MacroRisk Analytics® model uses 18 macroeconomic factors to break down the economy’s impact on investment value. Using this patented research, our team has twice won the William F. Sharpe Indexing Achievement Award for ETF/Indexing Paper of the Year. Click here to access this award-winning investment research today! You can find our other blog posts by clicking here.

Edited by Bob Hanisee and Rania Sullivan.